Electric Power Industry: Industrial Electric Rings Decline Slowly

Announced the August electricity quantity data: From January to August, the country's total generating capacity was 2,700.5 billion kwh, which represented a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, of which the electricity generation in August was 390.3 billion kwh, which represented a year-on-year increase of 12.6%. From January to August, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 2,799.7 billion kWh, an increase of 19.3% compared with the same period of the previous year, of which 897.5 billion kWh was used in August, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%.

Power generation was higher than expected: Electricity output for the month rose by 3.4% from the previous month, which was higher than the historical average of 0.1%. The year-on-year increase of 12.6% was higher than our previous estimate of 10%.

We believe that the power generation data is higher than our expectations mainly due to: (1) Weather factors: From the historical perspective of the past few years, the growth rate of the third industry and residents' electricity consumption in August was around 10%, and this year It reached 17%, which increased the electricity growth rate in August by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year; (2) The data of electricity generation volume in July: Our forecast for the electricity generation data in August mainly refers to the July data, but in July the electricity generation data There is a large deviation in the electricity consumption data. We estimate that there may be some errors in the statistics of electricity generation in July, which is obviously low.